Space Weather Modelling Workshop

28 Feb 2023, 09:00 → 2 Mar 2023, 13:00 Europe/Paris

Press Centre H05 (ESA/ESOC)

The Space Weather Office of ESA is currently organising the “Space Weather Modelling Workshop”. This will take place at ESA’s European Space Operations Centre (ESOC), located in Darmstadt, Germany, between the 28th of February and the 2nd of March 2023.

 

The European Space Agency wants to promote coordination and cooperation among the developers of the future European space weather forecasting models. To achieve this goal, we would like to create awareness of the current status of space weather modelling in Europe.

 

This workshop will be also an opportunity to identify mappings between models under development and space weather service requirements. All participants will be encouraged to contribute to the future of space weather forecasting including numerical, (semi-)empirical and machine learning models.

 

ESA has been entrusted with the coordination of the space weather activities under the Horizon Europe programme. This workshop will be the opportunity to promote your most recent work in space weather modelling. In-person presentations are encouraged, and priority will be assigned in the order of registration. Ample slots will be allocated in the programme to allow for discussions between the experts. We will invite our on-site participants to actively collaborate on the coordinated mapping of models, and on the identification of potential synergies with other teams.

 

A detailed agenda will be shared before the meeting. The tentative workshop sessions include the following:

1. European resources and assets that can contribute to the enhancement of existing forecasting models.

2. Advances in solar and coronal models.

3. New and enhanced models of the solar wind.

4. Modelling of the coupled geospace system: magnetosphere, inner-magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, atmosphere.

5. Modelling of high energy particles in the heliosphere and the magnetosphere.

6. Use cases and examples from the European HPC and meteorological communities.

 

European experts and lead developers will present their latest work in the field of space weather modelling and forecasting. Each presentation will last 15-20 minutes.

ESA PRIVACY NOTICE and CONSENT FORM Space Weather Modelling Workshop.pdf

Tuesday, 28 February

1 Badge pickup

09:30 Welcome coffee

2 Welcome to the workshop by the Space Weather Office of ESA

Speaker: Juha-Pekka Luntama (ESA/ESOC)

3 Space Weather Modelling projects at the Directorate of Technology: past, present and future funding opportunities

Speaker: Piers Jiggens (ESA/ESTEC)

4 FlarePredict: Predicting solar flares with sandpile models and machine learning

Speaker: Antoine Strugarek (CEA)

5 Data Assimilative Physics Based And Machine Learning Modelling Of The Near Earth Space Environment

Speaker: Yuri SHPRITS (GFZ/ UCLA)

11:10 Coffee

6 Deeply Understanding Space Weather

Speaker: Matthieu Melcot

7 SERENADE: Forecasting the Kp index a few days ahead using solar imaging and neural networks alone

Speaker: Guillerme Bernoux (ONERA)

8 Modelling space weather using a combination of physics-based and machine learning merthods.

Speaker: Giovanni Lapenta (KU Leuven)

9 IRF Space Weather

Speaker: Peter Wintoft (Swedish Institute of Space Physics)

12:50 Lunch

10 Trends in modern HPC systems

Speaker: Estela Suarez (Juelich Supercomputer Centre)

20230228_ESA_Suarez_fin.pdf

11 ARCAFF, Active Region Classification and Flare Forecasting

Speaker: Shane Maloney (DIAS)

12 The VSWMC-Status and future

Speaker: Stefaan Poedts (KU Leuven)

Poedts-VSWMC-ESOC.pdf

13 Solar Predict: a 11yr solar cycle forecasting tool

Speaker: Allan Sacha Brun (CEA Paris-Saclay, Dept. d'Astrophysique)

15:50 Coffee

14 Upgrading the AWSoM model by including kink waves

Speaker: Norbert Magyar (KU Leuven)

15 COCONUT: a fast converging global coronal model

Speaker: Michaela Brchnelova (KU Leuven)

Darmstadt_COCONUT-2.pdf

17:00 Visit ESA AGSA lab

Wednesday, 1 March

09:00 Welcome coffee

16 Forecasting ICME induced Satellite Orbit Decays with SODA

Speaker: Manuela Temmer (University of Graz, Institute of Physics)

17 Space modelling at RUB: Multiscale simulations of space plasmas

Speaker: Maria Elena Innocenti

18 Towards data-driven modeling of the corona-heliosphere system

Speaker: Jens Pomoell

19 Space weather models at Finnish Meteorological Institute

Speaker: Ilja Honkonen (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

10:50 Coffee

20 Solar wind modeling with EUHFORIA

Speaker: Jasmina Magdalenic (Royal Observatory of Belgium)

21 Icarus: a new highly optimized heliopsheric model for forecasting purporses

Speaker: Tinatin Baratashvili (KU Leuven)

Icarus_ a new highly optimized heliospheric model for forecasting purposes.pdf

22 Wind-Predict and Solar-Predict: Using data-driven simulations and data assimilation to forecast the solar cycle and its impact on the corona

Speaker: Barbara Perri (AIM/DAp)

wind_predict_esa_steps.pdf

23 Space modelling at RUB: SEP nowcasting with solar proxies

Speaker: Frederic Effenberger (Ruhr-University Bochum)

24 Towards advanced SEP forecasting using physics-based simulation modeling of particle acceleration and transport

Speaker: Alexandr Afanasiev (University of Turku)

12:50 Lunch

25 Weather forecasting at ECMWF

26 Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEMv4) with variable solar wind speed input

Speaker: Jaša Čalogović (Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb)

27 Kinetic processes in the interplanetary CME-driven shocks

Speaker: Marian Lazar (Centre for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven)

Lazar-CME-TII.pdf

28 Solar wind forecast models from University of Graz

Speaker: Daniel Milosic (University of Graz)

16:00 Visit ESOC

Thursday, 2 March

09:30 Welcome coffee

29 Development of the Gorgon global magnetospheric model for science and the GorgonOps implementation for space weather applications

Speaker: Jonathan Eastwood (Imperial College London)

30 Overview of the Bergen - Imperial Global Geospace modelling project

Speaker: Norah Kwagala (University of Bergen)

31 Hybrid PIC with AMR - towards hierarchical multi formalism plasma modelling

Speaker: Nicolas Aunai (CNRS/LPP)

32 PLASMA product family for Space Weather Monitoring

Speaker: Balázs Heilig (Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science)

11:10 Coffee

33 The RB-FAN framework, in the context of ESA-SSA and ESA-S2P

Speaker: Vincent Maget (ONERA)

34 Models for ionospheric plasma variability, irregularities, and scintillation conditions in the Arctic

Speaker: Wojciech Miloch (University of Oslo)

35 Operational inner magnetosphere particle transport and acceleration model (IMPTAM) for 1–300 keV electrons

Speaker: Natalia Ganushkina (Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki)

36 Electron radiation belt nowcast, forecast and safety assessment using the SafeSpace data assimilation modelling pipeline

Speaker: Nour Dahmen (ONERA)