Speaker
Description
The geomagnetic index Kp has widespread use in space weather due to the apparent simple interpretation and due to the close relation to the upstream solar wind. Clearly, Kp also has limitations for space weather but we will not discuss that here.
From an L1 monitor, Kp can be forecast with high accuracy with a lead time of a couple of hours, under the assumption that high resolution (minutes) uncorrupted magnetic field and plasma data exist. To extend the forecast lead time, solar observations and heliospheric models are required with for example their L1 forecasts feeding into L1-Kp-models. By evaluating 3-day Kp forecasts from different providers we see that it is extremely difficult to make detailed accurate forecasts in the general case. We discuss whether it is possible to reformulate forecasts to more accurately capture current capabilities in order to provide more informative forecasts. We describe one approach for probabilistic forecasts for G4 and G5 events relevant for power grid operators.
| Numerical model | IRF-G4 |
|---|
