Speaker
Description
Building on the Horizon 2020 projects PROGRESS (PRediction of Geospace Radiation Environment and Solar wind parameterS) and PAGER (Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic Storms and Energetic Radiation), the ESA-funded FLAG (Forecasts and Long-term probabilistic data Assimilative prediction of the effects of Geomagnetic storms) project advances the integration and operational deployment of space weather forecasting capabilities. While earlier initiatives established ensemble-based predictions of the radiation environment and geomagnetic disturbances, FLAG focuses on reorganizing and coupling these modelling components into a unified and operationally robust framework.
At the core of FLAG lies the orchestration architecture, which coordinates numerical models describing solar wind conditions, geomagnetic indices, plasmasphere dynamics, radiation belts, ring current processes, ionospheric parameters, and spacecraft charging risks. The system integrates heterogeneous modelling approaches, including machine learning, data assimilation, and physics-based simulations, through standardized data interfaces and controlled execution logic. Each component retains operational independence while remaining interoperable within the system architecture.
The orchestration layer manages automated data ingestion, ensemble handling, execution sequencing, and structured output exchange, ensuring continuity of service even under degraded upstream data conditions. By enabling modular yet coherent integration of multiple forecasting components, FLAG strengthens the transition from advanced research models to coordinated operational space weather services within the European landscape.
| Numerical model | physics/data based |
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