In this contribution, we will present two machine learning models that employ measurements from already-operated space instruments analogous to those Vigil will have on board (Majirsky et al., 2025a). The first model predicts the occurrence of geomagnetic storms by combining coronagraph images and in situ solar wind and IMF data (Majirsky et al., 2025b). The second model classifies in situ...
The properties and the spatial distribution of the large-scale structures of the solar corona determine the observed solar wind structure at 1~au. Coronal holes are a major source of fast solar wind, an important geo-effective component, and appear as large dark patches in extreme ultraviolet images. The solar observatories provide images of the solar corona at different wavelengths, enabling...
Early identification of flare-productive solar active regions is essential for operational space-weather forecasting. We present an integrated deep-learning framework for automated active-region detection, localization, magnetic classification, and short-term flare forecasting, designed for continuous monitoring and near-real-time deployment.
The system combines three complementary...
Transitioning from fundamental heliophysics research to reliable operational flare forecasting requires overcoming critical methodological bottlenecks. A primary obstacle is the "Big Flare Syndrome", wherein traditional forecasting models relying on extensive magnetic parameters are inherently biased by the macroscopic size of an Active Region (AR), rather than accurately sensing its...
S2WARM (St Andrews Space Weather Active Region Monitor) recognises eruptive solar active regions by assimilating magnetogram data into 3D NLFFF simulations and projecting their evolution. It computes first a theoretical and then a specific metrics to issue green, amber, or red alerts, factoring magnetic flux changes and Lorentz force evolution. Tested on a full rotation with 23 cases, S2WARM...
The ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC) project was defined as a long-term initiative comprising successive parts. Parts 1 and 2 were completed in the first 4-5 years, and a system was designed and developed that enables models and other components to be installed locally or geographically distributed and to be coupled and run remotely from the central system. A first, limited...
