Speaker
Mr
Benjamin Bastida Virgili
(ESA/ESOC)
Description
In this paper, we present the ESA Debris Environment Long Term Analysis (DELTA) tool, used to analyse the long term propagation and evolution of the future debris environment. DELTA is one of the models that contribute to the IADC studies on long term evolution, which have already been used to derive the mitigation guidelines and have also underlined the need for Active Debris Removal (ADR). DELTA is a three-dimensional, semi-deterministic model, which allows a user to investigate the evolution of the space debris environment and the associated mission collision risks in the low, medium and geosynchronous Earth orbit regions over user defined timespans. DELTA is able to examine the long-term effects of different future traffic profiles and debris mitigation measures, such as passivation and disposal at end-of-life, and also to take into account remediation measures, with the possibility to perform active debris removal in a variety of scenarios with different criteria.
DELTA uses an initial space object population as input and forecasts the evolution of all objects larger than a user-defined size. The population is described by representative objects, evolved with a fast analytical orbit propagator which takes into account the main perturbations. The initial population is usually extracted from ESA’s MASTER-2009 (Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) model at a given epoch, and can consider objects down to 1 mm in size. DELTA uses a set of detailed future traffic models for launch, explosion and solid rocket motor firing activity. They are each based on the historical activity of the preceding years. The collision event prediction is done by using a target centred approach, developed to stochastically predict impacts between all objects within the DELTA population. The fragmentation, or break-up, model used is based on the EVOLVE 4.0 (NASA) break-up model.
In this paper, we show in detail the architecture of DELTA. Furthermore, we explain its singular way of computing the probability of collision, which is flux-based, different to the majority of the long term evolution tools which use a CUBE method. Finally, some sample results of simulations performed with DELTA are shown in order to display the large range of possible scenarios and applications that such a tool has.
| Applicant type | First author |
|---|
Primary author
Mr
Benjamin Bastida Virgili
(ESA/ESOC)
