Space Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis Workshop

Europe/Amsterdam
HIV-VI (ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt)

HIV-VI

ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt
Vitali Braun (IMS Space Consultancy GmbH), Xanthi Oikonomidou (European Space Agency), Lucía Ayala Fernández (Technische Universität Braunschweig)
Description

The Workshop

After two successful workshop editions (the modelling workshop in March 2021, followed by the DRAMA workshop in 2022), we would like to continue in a similar fashion in the beginning of 2025: reaching out to the broader space debris mitigation community, this time we would like to

  1. exchange on and become aware of the community activity, concerning working with DRAMA & MASTER and measurements & model validation,
     
  2. facilitate and further improve exchange related to space debris mitigation and risk analyses, as well as associated debris mitigation compliance verification tasks, including among others collision avoidance, impact risk thresholds and orbital lifetime assessments,
     
  3. discuss the developments made in the frame of the 2020 - 2024 Debris Mitigation Facility in the relatively new context of ESA's Zero Debris policy.

The workshop will consist of dedicated presentations and talks; breakout group sessions with strong focus on open discussions; and guided sessions on use-cases in space debris mitigation practices.

As a result of the on-going stakeholder interaction, the workshop will provide an opportunity to discuss with users on various aspects on how analyses are performed, what may be still missing, and which developments to take in view of the evolving space sector. We invite everyone directly or indirectly affected by the modelling efforts and involved in activities ranging from the studying of the space debris environment, over mission design to policy decisions to participate!

Concept

We believe that addressing space debris modelling and mitigation activities through a participatory process is more likely to be accepted as a reference solution by the community. At the same time, when stakeholders with various knowledge, skills and resources are facilitated to give creative and critical input which is then translated into action, a culture of shared responsibility and ownership is being established, further reinforcing the consent on models and methodologies applied by the community.

The event will be in hybrid format and additional meeting information (incl. connection details) will be provided at a later point. Please specify your attendance preference (on-site presence at ESA/ESOC in Darmstadt or virtual participation). Please notice that attendance on-site is subject to capacity limits. Registered participants with on-site attendance preference will be informed if such measures apply. For online participants, we will aim to accommodate as many time zones as possible. Participation in the workshop is free of charge.

Background

Every satellite put into orbit today is exposed to the space debris environment for the time it is being operated but also during the ensuing disposal phase, which may add many more years of on-orbit presence. The environment is only expected to grow in terms of object numbers, especially in orbital regions that are already strongly affected by space debris pollution today. This means that space missions will be more difficult to operate by today’s standards (e.g. having to address more close encounters) and collisional breakup events, mainly between non-operational objects, are more likely to occur with time. This trend is exacerbated with the dramatically increased launch activity over the last four years and the deployment of large satellite constellations.

Space debris risk assessments targeting primarily the share of lethal non-trackable objects are informed by space debris models, such as the European Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) model. In order to assess compliance with those recommendations, a set of software tools has been developed since the early 2000s and bundled under the Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis (DRAMA) suite, which relies significantly on MASTER's background population. The DRAMA (and MASTER) user community has grown considerably within the past few years. In the exchange with engineers, operators, students, regulators and many more, a vision has been drafted by ESA’s Space Debris Office (SDO) team on how all those different perspectives and use-cases can be aligned towards a state-of-the-art application as a next evolutionary step in the space debris mitigation process. Through the creation of a single framework combining the different DRAMA tools; a move towards digital engineering; maximum compatibility with latest standards; and enabling as well as strengthening the community’s connection, the Debris Mitigation Facility (DMF) idea was born.

ESA has always played a major role in leading many of the research activities related to space debris mitigation, at the same time recognising the significant contributions by other institutions and the coordination efforts primarily by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). With space activities mostly conducted by public entities for many decades, ESA and other agencies developing space debris models, associated debris risk and mitigation analysis frameworks, as well as compliance verification means, were most of the time assuming the role of the customer and the user simultaneously. Over the past two decades the roles have shifted significantly, especially in view of the on-going commercialisation of space, and many new entities to get involved in space activities. Continuing the maintenance and the development of the MASTER and DRAMA model and tool suite, the Space Debris Office has recognised that it remained the customer while the user roles have been distributed all over the globe.

Registration
Registration for the DRAMA workshop
  • Thursday 16 January
    • 09:30 10:00
      Welcome & Introduction [on-site + online] 30m HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt
      Speakers: Lucía Ayala Fernández (Technische Universität Braunschweig), Vitali Braun (IMS Space Consultancy GmbH), Ms Xanthi Oikonomidou (European Space Agency)
    • 10:00 11:00
      Latest developments towards DRAMA 4.1 [on-site + online] 1h HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt

      With a five year period of the Debris Mitigation Facility (DMF) activities coming to a close, our core developers and partners from OKAPI:Orbits and iTTi are taking the opportunity to present the latest steps in the DRAMA evolution to the broader community. This presentation is focusing on the transition from DRAMA 4.0 (upcoming release in January 2025) towards DRAMA 4.1, including many new features in support of ESA's Zero Debris approach.

      Speaker: Mr Frederik Läuferts (OKAPI:Orbits GmbH)
    • 11:00 11:30
      Coffee Break 30m HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt
    • 11:30 13:00
      Highlight Talks [on-site + online] HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt

      A selection of a few talks from members of the DRAMA community to highlight recent developments and stimulate discussions taken forward to the round tables in the afternoon.

      • 11:30
        The Causal Future 15m

        The current suite of software tools for managing space debris at ESA (MASTER, DRAMA) were conceived some decades ago, when the statistical approach to uncertainty in science dominated.

        Since that time, the discipline of causal science has made great strides as a tool for uncertainty management and policy optimisation. Causal science is often preferred over statistical approaches in the domain of strategy making and policy creation, since the work of strategy formulation is inherently causal. That is to say, in strategy work we seek to calculate which events we should cause to product optimal effects (beneficial effects such as safety and profitability).

        In this talk, we explore an exciting future where the existing suite of management tools are augmented by, or replaced by, software that uses causal approaches and causal Agent-Based Artificial Intelligence.

        Speaker: Mr James Ward (CEO of Epistemology)
      • 11:45
        OHB’s Approach to Space Environment Modelling: MMOD Impacts and Re-entry 15m

        MASTER and DRAMA tools are currently used for analysis in OHB. Nevertheless, with the growing focus on impacts and debris, new techniques have been investigated and implemented to improve the accuracy and the modelling of the space environment. This talk will focus on two examples. The first one is about the use of MEM for models outside 1AU to complete MASTER. And the second one is about comparing DRAMA assumptions with a DSMC method for re-entry based on OpenFOAM.

        Speaker: Sara De Masi (OHB)
      • 12:00
        The new MASTER population 15m
        Speaker: Mr Andre Horstmann (IMS Space Consultancy GmbH)
      • 12:15
        Improving DRAMA/ARES for low-thrust missions 15m

        This talk will describe recent developments in the DRAMA/ARES tool to enable an improved analysis of collision avoidance strategies for low-thrust missions, including not only routine operations but also electric orbit raisings with pre-computed trajectories, and covering also different operational concepts to tackle the growth of the orbital uncertainty due to the low-thrust propulsion.

        Speaker: Mr Santiago Martínez Alcalde (GMV)
      • 12:30
        ESTIMATE Materials Update 15m
        Speaker: Mx Saskia Hawkins
      • 12:45
        SARA glass and ablative materials and other modelling enhancements 15m
        Speakers: Ian Holbrough (Belstead Research Limited), James Beck (Belstead Research Ltd)
    • 13:00 14:00
      Lunch Break 1h HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt
    • 14:00 16:00
      Round tables [on-site only] HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt

      In smaller groups, we will gather around thematic tables to discuss with our peers relevant topics in the context of space debris mitigation. Note that this session will not be streamed online and is for on-site participants only.

      • 14:00
        Collision Avoidance 2h

        At this round table we want to understand if current collision avoidance practices across the broader community, and especially with respect to the Zero Debris approach, are well reflected well in DRAMA/ARES and if not, to discuss which methods or features we would want to develop and implement.

        Speaker: Vitali Braun (IMS Space Consultancy GmbH)
      • 14:00
        Damage Assessments 2h

        At this round table, we want to understand if damage assessments in DRAMA/MIDAS cover the most relevant analyses and if not, what needs to be developed.

        Speaker: Ms Xanthi Oikonomidou (European Space Agency)
      • 14:00
        Data Collection and Sharing 2h

        With various existing databases (such as DISCOS, ESTIMATE, UCS, TLE catalogue) how do these enable mitigation and risk analyses - and what is missing here to further facilitate such analyses?

        Speaker: Stijn Lemmens (European Space Agency)
      • 14:00
        Disposal Analyses and Remaining Lifetime Assessments 2h

        At this round table, we want to understand if functionalities in DRAMA/OSCAR cover the most relevant analyses and, if not, what needs to be developed.

        Speaker: Lucía Ayala Fernández (Technische Universität Braunschweig)
      • 14:00
        Impact of Large Constellations 2h

        At this round table, we want to understand how the deployment of large constellations is shaping/changing the environment and how these changes impact our way of performing risk assessments and mitigation analyses.

        Speaker: Benjamin Bastida Virgili (ESA/ESOC)
      • 14:00
        Modelling Support for Interplanetary Missions 2h

        At this round table, we want to explore what we know about existing environmental models for interplanetary missions and how we approach such mission from the modelling perspective.

        Speaker: Sara De Masi (OHB)
      • 14:00
        Re-entry Modelling 2h

        At this round table, we want to understand whether our current abilities to model destructive reentry are aligned with what community members expect, primarily in mission design but also other areas. Identify what should be primarily focused on in our roadmap, bearing in mind that our tool (DRAMA/SARA) is not a CFD simulation but rather provides a good first estimate of the on-ground casualty risk.

        Speaker: Silvia Sanvido (IMS Space Consultancy)
      • 14:00
        Space Debris x Futures 2h

        Space Debris x Futures will guide participants through the complexities of space debris accumulation as an immersive and forward-thinking scenario exercise. We aim to provoke strategic foresight and disruptive anticipation by exploring adaptive, generational responses that supersede immediate contingency measures. Through role-playing, cross-disciplinary insights, collaborative activities, and a framework of thought that transcends linearity and mono-causal argumentations, participants will be asked to envision actionable strategies for sustainable space debris mitigation in uncertain futures.

        Speaker: Mr Daniel Schimmelpfennig (CTTF)
      • 14:00
        Supporting Atmosphere and Ocean Impact Assessments 2h

        With so many uncertainties and open questions in the field of spacecraft disposal and the interactions with the atmosphere and the oceans, how can we begin to approach assessments/criteria/requirements?

        Speaker: Saskia Hawkins
      • 14:00
        Trackability and Brightness Assessments 2h

        At this round table, we want to understand how our modelling of sensor (networks) and spacecraft reflectivity can suit the needs of both spacecraft and sensor operators.

        Speaker: Philippe Meyers (ESA)
      • 14:00
        Zero Debris with DRAMA 2h

        At this round table, we want to understand how the current DRAMA framework supports analyses of compliance with the Zero Debris approach.

        Speaker: Estelle Crouzet (ESA/ESOC)
    • 16:00 16:30
      Coffee Break 30m HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt
    • 16:30 17:30
      Round table wrap-up [on-site + online] 1h HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt

      In this session, we will present, summarise, and discuss the outcomes of the different parallel group discussion during the round table session.

    • 17:30 18:00
      Coffee Break 30m HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt

      A good time to reflect on an intense workshop day and get ready for some entertainment with the DRAMA quiz and subsequent community dinner!

    • 18:00 19:00
      DRAMA Quiz [on-site + online] 1h HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt

      The legendary DRAMA quiz all around space debris mitigation - and more. Those who turn out to be quiz champions can expect some goodies from us - on-site and online :)

    • 19:30 22:30
      Dinner time! 3h
  • Friday 17 January
    • 08:45 09:00
      Meeting for Clinics [on-site] 15m HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt
    • 09:00 11:00
      DRAMA Clinics [on-site + online] HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt

      Join one thematic clinic for this session to learn more about how to work hands-on with DRAMA and ask your questions to the experts and developers moderating your session. Each clinic is closely linked to the different tools in DRAMA, for instance SARA for the re-entry aspects, or ARES for operational collision avoidance.

      • 09:15
        ARES Clinic 1h 30m S211

        S211

        ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

        Speaker: Benjamin Bastida Virgili (ESA/ESOC)
      • 09:15
        DRAMA 4.x GUI Clinic 1h 30m HIV-VI

        HIV-VI

        ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

        Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt
        Speakers: Frederik Läuferts (OKAPI:Orbits GmbH), Philippe Meyers (ESA)
      • 09:15
        MASTER Clinic 1h 30m H290

        H290

        ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

        Speaker: Mr Andre Horstmann (IMS Space Consultancy GmbH)
      • 09:15
        MIDAS Clinic 1h 30m S113

        S113

        ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

        Speaker: Ms Xanthi Oikonomidou (European Space Agency)
      • 09:15
        OSCAR Clinic 1h 30m S413

        S413

        ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

        Speaker: Vitali Braun (IMS Space Consultancy GmbH)
      • 09:15
        SARA Clinic 1h 30m K112

        K112

        ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

        Understand whether our current abilities to model destructive reentry are aligned with what community members expect, primarily in mission design but also other areas. Identify what should be primarily focused on in our roadmap, bearing in mind that our tool (DRAMA/SARA) is not a CFD simulation but rather provides a good first estimate of the on-ground casualty risk.

        Speaker: Stijn Lemmens (European Space Agency)
    • 11:00 11:30
      Coffee Break 30m HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt
    • 11:30 12:55
      Discussion, Feedback & Conclusion [on-site + online] 1h 25m HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt

      A session to reflect and discuss open points.

    • 12:55 13:00
      Group Picture 5m HIV-VI

      HIV-VI

      ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt

      Robert-Bosch-Str. 5, 64293 Darmstadt