Speaker
Description
We will present our project Solar Cast@CEA that regroups several forecasting tools developed over many years by our team at CEA under CNES, ERC, french funding agency (ANR) and ESA fundings to be able to anticipate the solar activity and its influence of the inner heliosphere and our technological society.
Solar Cast is at present including three tools: Solar Predict, Wind Predict and Flare Predict, the first two being already deployed and maintained on ESA SWE web site and Flare Predict is anticipated to do so in the next 3 years. Solar predict forecasts using advanced 4-D var data assimilation methods aand a solar mean field dynamo, the solar cycle phase and amplitude with a 3-yr horizon window and is part of S-ESC, Wind-Predict is forecasting the state of the solar corona and wind via data-driven 3-D mHD simulation and is part of the VSWMC and H-ESC and finally Flare-Predict is based on a self-critical sandpile model to forecast the intense (> C8) flares. We will discuss their advantages and how we foresee their next development.
| Numerical model | Solar Cast@CEA |
|---|
