Speaker
Description
The French Space Agency CNES in collaboration with R.Tech have developed a probabilistic tool to evaluate the survivability of space debris based on DEBRISK. The uncertainties of all the models are accounted for. Their effect on the survivability is quantified through Monte Carlo method to evaluate its distribution compared with the determinist approach. Two models for simulating the fragmentation of the spacecraft are investigated. The uncertainties of the input parameters are ranked with respect to how much they influence the uncertainties on the survivability. The heat rate, the break up altitude and the low-speed drag coefficient are the parameters with the largest influences on the casualty area, given their uncertainties. The choice of the threshold of maximum energy for an object impacting the earth to be considered a human risk also influence significantly the casualty area.
