Speaker
Description
Environment evolution models are important scientific tools to study on-orbit population dynamics over long time scales. While such tools are based on intrinsic physical models, i.e. the computation of collision rates, they equally rely on external scenario assumptions, i.e. the future evolution of launch traffic. As such tools are already being used to carry out sustainability analyses, evaluate mitigation measures and derive guidelines for a sustainable use of outer space, it is important to conduct such studies under realistic assumptions regarding the underlying long-term evolution scenarios.
Using the LUCA2 simulation tool as an example, we demonstrate how scenario assumptions can be derived from publicly available data sources. In this context, the extrapolation of launch traffic and explosion rates, as well as the configuration of satellite constellations, are considered. First, a generic model for extrapolating event rates has been developed to define launch traffic and explosion rate scenarios based on historic events. The new model enables the definition of more complex scenarios compared to commonly employed approaches, such as the repetition of previous launch cycles. Second, a dedicated model has been developed to derive key operational and orbital parameters of satellite constellations that are currently active or under deployment from orbital data. This allows constellations to be simulated based on their current on-orbit configuration, which may differ from public reports or initially filed plans. Based on these two modelling approaches, various evolution scenarios have been defined, simulated using the LUCA2 tool, and analysed in terms of the temporal and spatial distribution of object populations.
| Which section would you like to submit your abstract to? | Session 2: “Challenges of space debris modelling” |
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