Second Space Capacity Allocation For The Sustainability Of Space Activities Workshop

Session

Challenges of space debris modelling

2

3 Jun 2026, 13:30

Politecnico di Milano

Description

Covered topics:
- Modelling of the long-term evolution of the space object population environment and challenges in the forecast of the future launch traffic and technology development scenarios.

26. New modelling approaches for defining environment evolution scenarios

Lorenz Böttcher

03/06/2026, 13:30

Environment evolution models are important scientific tools to study on-orbit population dynamics over long time scales. While such tools are based on intrinsic physical models, i.e. the computation of collision rates, they equally rely on external scenario assumptions, i.e. the future evolution of launch traffic. As such tools are already being used to carry out sustainability analyses,...

41. ESMILE: An Ensemble-Driven Particle-in-a-Box Model for Efficient Space Debris Scenario Exploration

Francesco De Bortoli (Politecnico di Milano)

03/06/2026, 13:45

One of the main challenges in long-term space debris population modelling is the need to explore multiple scenarios in order to assess system evolution under varying conditions and to evaluate different “what-if” situations. However, traditional approaches rely on sequential simulations, making this process time-consuming and computationally inefficient, as they are typically designed to...

54. An Overview of Innovative Optical Observation Techniques Applied to Daytime and Cislunar Orbits and Real-Time Tracking

Matteo Rossetti (Sapienza University of Rome)

03/06/2026, 14:00

The growing population of Resident Space Objects (RSOs) poses increasing challenges for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) and, more broadly, for Space Situational Awareness (SSA). The Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environment is already highly congested, and the rapid deployment of commercial mega-constellations is expected to further increase the number of active and inactive objects requiring...

44. KESSLER SYNDROME ANALYSIS VIA A MULTI-SHELL MACROSCOPIC MODEL

Luca Di Gregorio (Politecnico di Milano)

03/06/2026, 14:15

The rapid proliferation of satellites and the continuous accumulation of space debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of space activities, raising concerns about the potential onset of the Kessler syndrome. This work presents a comprehensive analysis of the future LEO environment through a modified and expanded version of the one-dimension...

24. The MOCAT Ecosystem: An Overview of the MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool Suite

Dr Giovanni Lavezzi (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

03/06/2026, 14:30

The recent surge in commercial space activity in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) has led to increased interest in understanding the complex dynamics of space debris, estimating their long-term evolution, and defining an upper limit on sustainable satellite activity. The open-source MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool (MOCAT) tackles this challenge through an integrated suite of models that offer...