Second Space Capacity Allocation For The Sustainability Of Space Activities Workshop

Session

Challenges of space debris modelling

2

3 Jun 2026, 11:30

Politecnico di Milano

Description

Covered topics:
- Modelling of the long-term evolution of the space object population environment and challenges in the forecast of the future launch traffic and technology development scenarios.

12. Challenges in Long-Term Space Debris Environment Modeling: Forecast Uncertainty in Traffic, Technology Evolution, and Propagation Methods using EMOCAT

Tyler Barr (Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, XDLab)

The long-term evolution of the space object population is increasingly difficult to characterize due to rapid changes in launch activity, spacecraft design, and operational behavior in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Models developed under relatively stable conditions are now applied to a dynamic environment shaped by large constellations, high deployment rates, and diverse operator practices. These...

26. New modelling approaches for defining environment evolution scenarios

Lorenz Böttcher

Environment evolution models are important scientific tools to study on-orbit population dynamics over long time scales. While such tools are based on intrinsic physical models, i.e. the computation of collision rates, they equally rely on external scenario assumptions, i.e. the future evolution of launch traffic. As such tools are already being used to carry out sustainability analyses,...

24. The MOCAT Ecosystem: An Overview of the MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool Suite

Dr Giovanni Lavezzi (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

The recent surge in commercial space activity in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) has led to increased interest in understanding the complex dynamics of space debris, estimating their long-term evolution, and defining an upper limit on sustainable satellite activity. The open-source MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool (MOCAT) tackles this challenge through an integrated suite of models that offer...