Speaker
Description
In the coming years, the Near-Earth orbital environment is expected to undergo a radical transformation, driven by the growing interest in space, the proliferation of mega constellations and the increasing accessibility of space through reusable launch vehicles. As the density of Resident Space Objects (RSOs) rises, the risk of orbital overexploitation and the increasing number of conjunction events threaten the long-term sustainability of space activities. In this context, Space Traffic Management (STM) needs to integrate active and passive coordination. Currently, the problem of space environment congestion is addressed through active coordination among all the operators, who manually handle conjunctions. But this approach can become unsustainable and ineffective. An alternative and scalable method is based on orbital coordination which enables the use of designated slots, optimizing orbital capacity, and minimizing the risk of conjunction and the operational burden associated with coordinating collision avoidance maneuvers. While literature has extensively explored orbital slotting techniques, such as 2D Lattice Flower Constellations for intra-shell coordination and frozen orbits for inter-shell orbital slotting, these models often rely on the theoretical minimum separation distance among satellites. However, the effectiveness of any slotting architecture is strictly bound by the operational capabilities of the satellites (control, measurement, and communication) and the STM tracking and surveillance architecture. In this context, the concept of Required Navigation Performance (RNP), used in Air Traffic Management (ATM), can be extended to STM. By establishing a quantitative link between RNP and orbital slot size, performance-based containment volumes are defined to dictate safe operational boundaries. The spaceborne RNP architecture is governed by two primary factors: the satellite's control capability to maintain a nominal trajectory and the tracking and navigation uncertainty. The proposed RNP framework is classified into three progressive levels of orbital coordination, ranging from basic orbital shell maintenance to full nominal trajectory adherence. A preliminary analysis of required station-keeping and tracking performance across these varying degrees of coordination identifies the critical aspects affecting the orbital slots size. Crucially, investigations into tracking uncertainty reveal that the rapid divergence of in-track errors represents the primary bottleneck for high-density intra-shell coordination, requiring highly accurate sensors and high-frequency measurement updates.
This framework represents a paradigm shift from static geometric allocations to dynamic, performance-based orbital slots. It provides a standardized methodology for operators and STM authorities to systematically determine the minimum slot size a satellite can maintain based on its performance, thereby identifying which assets are eligible for operation in high-density orbital shells. While serving as a tool for orbital coordination, this RNP formulation concurrently establishes the groundwork for future comprehensive studies aimed at directly mapping navigation performance to maximum attainable orbital capacity, which will provide a quantitative foundation for future STM regulations.
| Which section would you like to submit your abstract to? | Session 11: “Space capacity management” |
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