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Esther Sanyé-Mengual (Joint Research Centre (JRC)), Thibaut Maury (Directorate General for Defence industry and Space (DEFIS), European Commission)03/06/2026, 10:00
Space activities are increasingly facing with sustainability challenges associated with the deployment of large satellite constellations and rapid accumulation of both functional and non-functional objects (i.e. debris), eventually leading to orbital congestion and increased cascading collision risks. Similar to conventional environmental stressors, space debris results from the interaction...
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Lorenz Böttcher03/06/2026, 13:30
Environment evolution models are important scientific tools to study on-orbit population dynamics over long time scales. While such tools are based on intrinsic physical models, i.e. the computation of collision rates, they equally rely on external scenario assumptions, i.e. the future evolution of launch traffic. As such tools are already being used to carry out sustainability analyses,...
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Francesco De Bortoli (Politecnico di Milano)03/06/2026, 13:45
One of the main challenges in long-term space debris population modelling is the need to explore multiple scenarios in order to assess system evolution under varying conditions and to evaluate different “what-if” situations. However, traditional approaches rely on sequential simulations, making this process time-consuming and computationally inefficient, as they are typically designed to...
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Matteo Rossetti (Sapienza University of Rome)03/06/2026, 14:00
The growing population of Resident Space Objects (RSOs) poses increasing challenges for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) and, more broadly, for Space Situational Awareness (SSA). The Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environment is already highly congested, and the rapid deployment of commercial mega-constellations is expected to further increase the number of active and inactive objects requiring...
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Luca Di Gregorio (Politecnico di Milano)03/06/2026, 14:15
The rapid proliferation of satellites and the continuous accumulation of space debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of space activities, raising concerns about the potential onset of the Kessler syndrome. This work presents a comprehensive analysis of the future LEO environment through a modified and expanded version of the one-dimension...
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Dr Giovanni Lavezzi (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)03/06/2026, 14:30
The recent surge in commercial space activity in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) has led to increased interest in understanding the complex dynamics of space debris, estimating their long-term evolution, and defining an upper limit on sustainable satellite activity. The open-source MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool (MOCAT) tackles this challenge through an integrated suite of models that offer...
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Camilla Colombo (Politecnico di Milano)03/06/2026, 16:00
Space assets offer services of social and economic benefit for humankind and enable monitoring the condition of our planet. As recognised by the UN and space agencies, space missions for Earth observation, geolocation, telecommunication, science, and technology contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. As our lives become more and more interconnected thanks to...
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Gregory Henning (The Aerospace Corporation)03/06/2026, 16:30
There are numerous space debris mitigation policy documents around the world, ranging from national and international policy to agency-level policy. In most cases, rules designed to mitigate the impacts of debris are “one-size-fits-all” rules applying to all operators equally. As traffic levels grow and space becomes more congested, current rules may not suffice and will need to be made more...
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Stefano Lopresti (CISAS/UniPd)03/06/2026, 16:45
In recent years, the problem of space debris has reached a critical level, requiring new and continuously updated mitigation tools. It is essential to develop impact risk assessment methodologies supported by accurate physical models, enabling more reliable satellite platform design. At the same time, up-to-date environmental models are crucial to provide realistic, high-resolution risk...
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Dr Juan Luis Gonzalo (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos)03/06/2026, 17:00
Even with the adoption of increasingly more demanding regulations to curb the generation of debris by space missions, both during operations and at end-of-life, the congestion of commercially relevant orbital regions such as LEO is expected to increase due to two main drivers. First, the existing population of debris will continue to pose a threat, and their number can keep increasing through...
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Achraf Mizmizi (Politecnico di Milano)03/06/2026, 17:15
Periodic encounters arise from repeated close approaches between the same pair of objects, driven by their relative orbital geometry, and represent one of the main causes of Conjunction Data Messages. Due to their recurrent nature, these events can generate multiple conjunction notifications over extended time intervals, making their early identification particularly important for long term...
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Alfredo Biagini (Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo - OAPA)03/06/2026, 17:30
Space debris are an increasing hazard for every kind space activities and a growing source of pollution. To date, research has primarily focused on a quantitative approach, monitoring the number and orbits of debris. However, characterizing individual objects could prove equally valuable — enabling the study of re-entry trajectories, associated risks, and, most importantly, the study of their...
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03/06/2026, 17:45
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Piero Benvenuti (International Astronomical Union)04/06/2026, 09:30
The exponential increase in the population of satellites in Low Earth Orbit is seriously interfering with optical, infrared and radio astronomical observations. The Centre for the Protection of Dark and Quiet Sky, created by the International Astronomical Union in 2022, is actively engaged in discussions with all concerned stakeholders on possible mitigating measures. While the majority of the...
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Enza Magaudda04/06/2026, 09:45
Post Mission Disposal (PMD) success rates remain well below the levels needed to stabilize the debris population, in both LEO and GEO, and below the thresholds now codified in ISO 24113. Historical analysis of unsuccessful disposal attempts reveals a recurring pattern: spacecraft with sufficient propellant and no single catastrophic failure were nonetheless not disposed of successfully. The...
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55. Estimation of the Avoidance Manoeuvre Operational Burden Caused by In-Orbit Fragmentation EventsJuan Felipe Cabrera (Politecnico di Milano)04/06/2026, 10:00
Given the recent increase in space activity, new interest has been brought on understanding the consequences that in-orbit fragmentations can create to the space environment. In addition to the potential collisions that fragments produced in a breakup could have on the operational population of satellites, it is important to evaluate the increment of operational effort caused by a break-up...
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Francois Vinet (CNES)04/06/2026, 10:15
CNES, the French space agency, is actively involved in space sustainability efforts, for example through the development and use of environmental indices. Its unique position—as a regulator (through the French Space Operation Act), an operator (notably as the provider of the CAESAR collision avoidance service for EUSST), and a research actor—enables it to address space sustainability from...
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Camilla Colombo (Politecnico di Milano), Diego Ramírez Rodríguez, Eduardo Maria Polli (Politecnico di MIlano), Juan Felipe Cabrera (Politecnico di Milano)04/06/2026, 10:30
The growth of large constellations and the increasing reliance on multiple SSA providers are pushing current conjunction assessment (CA) and collision avoidance (COLA) practices to their limits. In operational CA, decision criteria are still largely driven by geometrical and/or a probability of collision (PoC) thresholds, while neglecting the environmental and economic consequences of a...
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Xiaoran Yan (IFAC-CNR)04/06/2026, 11:15
The rapid expansion of space activities, driven by the deployment of megaconstellations and the diversification of orbital operations, poses an unprecedented challenge to the finite carrying capacity of the near-Earth environment. To effectively manage this delicate ecosystem and establish globally accepted thresholds, robust and adaptable long-term evolutionary models are essential. This...
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Daniel Lück (Politecnico di Milano)04/06/2026, 11:30
The THEMIS approach allows modelling consumed space capacity. In the probability-based approach, environmental impact from all major objects (spacecraft, rocket bodies and derelicts) is aggregated. This gives a single value for the consumed space capacity. It can be evaluated for the current space environment and future predictions. Different scenarios or individual events like fragmentations...
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Prof. Massimiliano Vasile (University of Strathclyde)04/06/2026, 11:45
This paper presents a network-theoretic approach to the analysis of the global health of the space environment. We will first introduce an index measuring the criticality of different orbital regions to the status of the environment.
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We will then derive a definition of orbital carrying capacity from the criticality score and relate the region criticality to more common object level risk... -
Gregory Henning (The Aerospace Corporation)04/06/2026, 12:00
As large constellation launch traffic continues to grow and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) becomes more crowded the ability to quantify the effect that space traffic has on operations sustainability in that environment is becoming more important. A variety of indices have been developed or are currently under development to address this problem, each tailored to a specific analytical purpose and...
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Zoé Medaric04/06/2026, 12:15
The expansion of human activity in space has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of objects traveling at high velocities in low Earth orbit. These objects are susceptible to mutual collisions, necessitating continuous and precise monitoring. The resulting cascade of debris from successive collisions, commonly referred to as the
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Kessler syndrome, poses a significant long-term... -
Daniel Lück (Politecnico di Milano)04/06/2026, 14:00
The concept of an orbital carrying capacity was introduced relatively recently. It works under the assumption that, like other ecosystems, space in orbit around Earth is a limited resource. Efforts have been made to evaluate the total available space capacity and the share of capacity consumed both by current missions and for different future scenarios. This way the maximum number of missions...
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37. Scenario-based modeling of debris mitigation strategies to support policy and operator decisionsMartina Rusconi (Politecnico di Milano), Qian Shi (Secure World Foundation)04/06/2026, 14:45
The scale and cadence of space activities today are expected to have long-lasting impacts on the Low Earth Orbit environment. Debris evolution models exist, but there remains a gap between environmental modelling outputs and how they translate to guiding and informing operational and regulatory decision-making. This work, developed as part of the ERC project GREEN SPECIES in a collaboration...
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José Luis Torres Chacón (Universidad de Málaga)04/06/2026, 16:30
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium integrated assessment model of the space economy that explicitly links economic activity on Earth with satellite operations in orbit. The model incorporates a space environmental externality in the form of orbital debris, which accumulates endogenously through launches, on-orbit operations, and collisions, and generates damages to space...
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Anna HUROVA (Space Chair, ENS-PSL)04/06/2026, 16:45
This presentation examines the evolving policy and legal requirements associated with the emergence of a new category of space activity, namely space-based data centers designed to support artificial intelligence operations. Initiatives such as Google’s Project Suncatcher, Microsoft Azure Space, Blue Origin’s Orbital Data Centre, Space Exploration Holdings illustrate an accelerating trend...
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Mr Yasuhito UTO (BULL Co., Ltd.), Mr Masakazu KOYANAGI (BULL SAS)04/06/2026, 17:00
Post-mission disposal (PMD) is increasingly embedded in the policy framework for space debris mitigation. However, the growing expectation that missions should dispose of space objects at end of life does not automatically mean that disposal solutions are practicable at scale. As commercial space activity expands rapidly, the key policy question is no longer only whether PMD is desirable, but...
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Raoul Cardellini Leipertz (School of Advanced Defence Studies (CASD-SSU))04/06/2026, 17:15
Large-constellation deployment has outgrown a debris-mitigation framework designed for a less congested orbital environment. Standards developed for individual missions and comparatively slow replenishment cycles are under pressure from continuous launch activity, rapid satellite replacement, and disposal practices whose cumulative effects span operators and accumulate over time. The...
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Emmanuelle David (EPFL)04/06/2026, 17:45
In 2023, the EPFL Space Center launched the Sustainable Space Hub to pioneer and steward Swiss space sustainability. By fostering interdisciplinary collaborations and building expertise between academic institutions, international organizations, and private actors, the Hub aims to advance the field through constructive dialogue.
This abstract contribution will focus on the workshop...
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04/06/2026, 18:00
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Giuseppe Sala (Politecnico di Milano)05/06/2026, 09:00
The rapid expansion of space activities, the proliferation of mega-constellations and the growing congestion of Earth orbit are generating unprecedented governance challenges for the long-term sustainability of outer space. The presentation explores a historical parallel between today’s orbital environment and the evolution of international civil aviation in the mid-twentieth century. In 1944,...
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Giulia Pavesi05/06/2026, 09:15
The proposed EU Space Act, introduced by the European Commission on June 2025, aims to establish a regulatory framework for space activities within the European Union. Anchored in Article 114 TFEU, the regulation seeks to strengthen the internal market by creating a predictable, competitive, and innovation-friendly environment for space operators. It responds to increasing fragmentation across...
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François Baccelli (Académie des Sciences)05/06/2026, 09:30
Prior to the G7 Summit of Heads of State and Government, the science
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academies of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the
United Kingdom and the United States) met in Paris on May 18 and 19, 2026
for Science 7 (S7). These S7 meetings are designed to inform international
policy decisions with available scientific knowledge. On this occasion, a
joint statement on large... -
Dr Thibaut MAURY-MICOLIER (DEFIS - European Commission)05/06/2026, 11:30
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is emerging as a key tool to support eco-design and sustainability assessment in the space sector. However, current practices remain fragmented and often limited to upstream phases, with insufficient consideration of in-orbit operations and end-of-life impacts. This gap hinders comparability across studies and prevents a comprehensive evaluation of the environmental...
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Andrea Muciaccia (Politecnico di Milano), Mr Diego Ramirez (GMV Spain)05/06/2026, 12:00
Space debris indicators are powerful tools for the quantitative evaluation of the environmental impact of space missions towards space debris and the effectiveness of space debris mitigation adoptions. This work presents the advancements of the THEMIS 2.0 software for “Tracking the Health of the Environment and Missions in Space” within the project S2-SD-02 - Extended Methods for Space Debris...
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Pietro Russo (Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II)05/06/2026, 12:15
In the coming years, the Near-Earth orbital environment is expected to undergo a radical transformation, driven by the growing interest in space, the proliferation of mega constellations and the increasing accessibility of space through reusable launch vehicles. As the density of Resident Space Objects (RSOs) rises, the risk of orbital overexploitation and the increasing number of conjunction...
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christian villanueva (private practitioner)05/06/2026, 12:30
This paper examines the fundamental obligations of authorization and continuing supervision under Article VI of the Outer Space Treaty, viewed through the lens of an emerging space nation. As new actors enter the space domain, distinguishing these two functions is critical for maintaining State responsibility and supporting sustainable space activities. Authorization functions as a prospective...
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Marie Delaroche (MaiaSpace)05/06/2026, 12:45
Transatlantic transport constitutes a significant environmental hotspot in the life cycle of launch vehicles. This study evaluates key mitigation strategies for MaiaSpace's logistics operations between Le Havre (Metropolitan France) and Kourou (French Guiana), as projections show that logistics activities will account for approximately 30% of MaiaSpace’s total climate change impact by 2033...
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Cecilia Nota (Università di Torino)05/06/2026, 14:30
The proposed EU Space Act represents a landmark paradigm shift in space governance by importing the so-called Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) from Union environmental law into the regulatory framework of outer space activities. Central to this initiative is the transition from a reactive liability regime to a proactive model of environmental stewardship through mandatory Life Cycle Assessments...
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Marie Delaroche (MaiaSpace)05/06/2026, 15:00
Integrating environmental considerations into launcher design presents unique challenges due to the iterative nature of development processes, limited production volumes, variety of design versions, and specialized materials involved. This study presents the development and application of an environmental trade-off tool designed to support eco-design for the MaiaSpace launch vehicle. The tool...
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Enrique Moliner (Arribes Enlightenment)05/06/2026, 15:15
The transition towards more sustainable space activities requires the integration of environmental considerations across all phases of design and operation, as well as the consideration of multiple impact dimensions beyond traditional performance metrics. In this context, this work presents a digital tool based on life cycle assessment (LCA) useful to support ecodesign in space launch systems,...
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Achraf Mizmizi (Politecnico di Milano)05/06/2026, 15:30
Artificial light pollution in the night sky has increased significantly in recent years, raising growing concern among institutions and the space community. International bodies, including the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) and the International Astronomical Union (IAU), have recognized satellite brightness as a major sustainability challenge. Despite...
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Martina Rusconi (Politecnico di Milano)05/06/2026, 15:45
In recent years, simulations based on evolutionary models of the space debris population, from many studies in the literature, have shown the need for more actions to mitigate the space debris problem, beyond post-mission disposal of satellites at the end of life. Many derelict objects have been left in orbit since the first space missions and more will inevitably be left in orbit in the...
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Lorenzo Cimino (Sapienza University of Rome)05/06/2026, 16:00
The concern raised by astronomers due to undesired acquisitions of space debris and satellites streaks in astronomical images determined a growing interest in so called Dark and Quiet Skies policies over the last years. Space agencies, international organizations and national governments are issuing new recommendations and laws aimed at ensuring
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that the apparent brightness of space objects... -
Nouhaila Bouhadi (Universtity Chouaïb Doukkali, Faculty of Sciences)05/06/2026, 16:15
This contribution explores how geomagnetic storm conditions should be incorporated into discussions on space sustainability and orbital capacity management. While space capacity is often discussed through debris population, launch traffic, and mitigation compliance, disturbed space weather conditions also play a significant role by altering upper-atmospheric density, drag, orbital prediction,...
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05/06/2026, 16:30
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