Speaker
Description
Of the record 180 rocket launches in 2022, 129 resulted in a rocket body being abandoned in orbit to eventually reenter the atmosphere days, weeks or years later. These uncontrolled reentries create a risk of casualty to people on the ground, at sea and in aircraft. Also in 2022, numerous pieces of large rocket debris from major launchers – including SpaceX Falcon-9 and Chinese Long-March rockets – crash landed near populated areas. These risky reentries can be prevented using existing technologies and mission designs: controlled reentries can direct the rocket bodies into a remote area of the ocean and effectively eliminate the risk of casualty.
Here we provide an overview of the recent trends concerning uncontrolled and controlled reentries of rocket bodies. We look at which rockets – and states – utilize either type of reentry, and in which type of launches (LEO, GTO etc.) these are used. Finally, we present the trends in recent years: while the absolute number of controlled reentries has increased (driven by SpaceX Starlink launches), the proportion of controlled reentries has stayed level, resulting in an increased number of uncontrolled reentries and therefore a greater casualty risk. Against this context we provide recommendations to industry and government to mitigate this risk.
