Speakers
Description
Ensuring safe and sustainable re-entry of space systems has become an increasingly important topic within European space debris mitigation efforts, especially with the evolution of Design for Demise (D4D) techniques increasingly demanding physically representative aerothermodynamic, fragmentation, and material modelling.
Existing re-entry tools, such as ESA’s DRAMA suite, provide robust capabilities for trajectory propagation and casualty risk estimation, but still rely on simplified or heritage assumptions for fragmentation mechanisms, explosion triggering and material ablation under re-entry aerothermodynamic conditions.
In recent years, several ESA-funded activities have significantly improved our understanding of demisable materials, hardware design solution, and re-entry modelling approaches. However, these advances have not yet been fully incorporated into the current version of the Design for Demise Verification Guidelines (DIVE).
The AERIS project addresses this gap by both updating the DIVE guidelines and improving the underlying modelling capabilities used in re-entry analyses. The activity is structured around three main pillars: (i) consolidation and update of DIVE based on recent experimental and modelling studies, (ii) development of a probabilistic explosion model for re-entry scenarios, and (iii) implementation of an ablation model capable of capturing material degradation and by-product release.
The first activity focuses on providing a structured update of the DIVE guidelines, building on the most relevant results from ESA studies carried out between 2020 and 2025. This update is based on a systematic review and consolidation of available studies, covering areas such as advanced materials, demisable hardware concepts, and approaches to testing and validation. One of the key challenges lies in the consistency of the inputs, as different studies may provide overlapping or sometimes conflicting recommendations. To address this, a structured approach is adopted to assess the relevance and reliability of each input and to ensure that all updates to DIVE remain traceable and technically justified.
In parallel, the project supports the evolution of re-entry modelling capabilities through the development of two complementary models meant to be used in re-entry analysis tools (component-oriented, e.g., DRAMA, or more accurate alternatives). A probabilistic explosion model is introduced to represent both the likelihood and consequence of in-flight break-up events happening during the atmospheric re-entry. In addition, an ablation model is developed to provide improved estimation of material degradation during re-entry.
Overall, AERIS supports more consistent D4D verification by aligning recent developments with the guidelines already present in DIVE. This is complemented by the integration of new explosion and ablation models to improve physical representativeness.