ATD3 Workshop 2026

Session

Numerical modelling and validation of destructive re-entry

17 Jun 2026, 14:15

Accueil (Toulouse - Cité de l'Espace)

Conveners

Numerical modelling and validation of destructive re-entry

• Martin Spel (RTECH)
• Marco Fossati (University of Strathclyde)

Numerical modelling and validation of destructive re-entry

• Céline Baranger (CEA/Cesta)

Description

Martin Spel, Marco Fossati

60. Tree-Based Surrogate Modelling of Aerothermochemistry for Space Debris Reentry

Jeanne Longlune (Thermo and Fluid Dynamics (FLOW), Faculty of Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel & Aerothermomechanics department, Ecole Polytechnique de Bruxelles, Université libre de Bruxelles)

17/06/2026, 14:15

Numerical modelling and validation of destructive re-entry

Presentation

Accurate aerothermodynamic modelling of space debris reentry is critical both for ground
casualty risk assessment and for quantifying ablation-driven mass deposition in the
upper atmosphere. Operational tools, such as ESA’s DRAMA software suite,
rely on engineering correlations with simplified chemical assumptions, while high-fidelity
CFD, though resolving some of these limitations,...

69. On Debris Aerodynamic Stability and its Prediction

Alexey KLIMKO (CNES)

17/06/2026, 14:51

Numerical modelling and validation of destructive re-entry

Presentation

In 2008, France adopted the French Space Operation Act (LOS), which regulates the space activities of French operators. Among many topics covered, the LOS act also addresses the reentry of spacecraft and their debris, by imposing a maximum acceptable probability of a fragment to survive and pose a risk to populations.

As the number of satellites in orbit continues to grow, the importance of...

49. BLAZE project: Improving Re‑Entry Predictions Through Cross‑Validated Modelling

Bayrem Zitouni (OHB)

17/06/2026, 15:09

Numerical modelling and validation of destructive re-entry

Presentation

Assessing spacecraft demisability during atmospheric re‑entry is essential for ensuring compliance with Space Debris Mitigation Requirements. Today, ESA’s DRAMA‑SARA toolchain is the de‑facto standard for such analyses. However, its empirical modelling assumptions and legacy conservatism increasingly drive major design decisions, often leading to unnecessarily constrained propulsion...

58. Risk Requirements Verification Methods and Models for Spacecraft Re-entry: DIVE Update, Explosion and Ablation Modelling

Ms Anca-Maria Stan (Indra Space), Andreea Sabau (Indra Space), Federico Bariselli (von Karman Institute for Fluid Dynamics), Marco Fossati (University of Strathclyde), Valentin Ledermann (R.Tech Engineering)

17/06/2026, 15:27

Numerical modelling and validation of destructive re-entry

Presentation

Ensuring safe and sustainable re-entry of space systems has become an increasingly important topic within European space debris mitigation efforts, especially with the evolution of Design for Demise (D4D) techniques increasingly demanding physically representative aerothermodynamic, fragmentation, and material modelling.

Existing re-entry tools, such as ESA’s DRAMA suite, provide robust...

71. Reachable Set Propagation for Space Debris Re-Entry

Tommy Williamson (University of Strathclyde Aerospace Centre for Excellence)

17/06/2026, 16:20

Numerical modelling and validation of destructive re-entry

Presentation

As the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite population increases, methods for computation of space debris re-entry footprints are an increasingly important part of assessing the impact of a spacecraft on humanity. Unfortunately, methods for forward and backward propagation of uncertainty and state estimation in uncontrolled re-entry struggle with a great deal of the common complicating factors on...

77. High-Fidelity Coupled Flow-Structure Simulation of the early Reentry Phase of the Satellite Eu:CROPIS

Lukas Lemaitre (DLR)

17/06/2026, 16:38

Numerical modelling and validation of destructive re-entry

Presentation

Over the past decades, near-Earth space is becoming increasingly congested thus increasing the risk of inter-collision between satellites and generating thousands of space debris. To keep the near-earth orbit usable, it is necessary to deorbit the satellites at the end of their lives. However, during atmospheric reentry, parts of the satellite might not burn up completely and thus pose a...