Speaker
Description
The rapid expansion of space activities, driven by the deployment of megaconstellations and the diversification of orbital operations, poses an unprecedented challenge to the finite carrying capacity of the near-Earth environment. To effectively manage this delicate ecosystem and establish globally accepted thresholds, robust and adaptable long-term evolutionary models are essential. This study introduces SDM 6.0, a comprehensive modernization of the well-established Space Debris Mitigation (SDM) model, designed to meet the evolving demands of contemporary space traffic management and capacity assessment.
To address the growing complexity of the space environment, the core architecture of SDM has been fundamentally refactored. By implementing scalable, modern data structures and an extensible computational framework, SDM 6.0 offers significantly enhanced adaptability and performance. This software modernization allows for a more flexible and future-proof representation of dynamic orbital operations, enabling researchers to better characterize complex multidimensional space environments.
Utilizing this upgraded framework, we present a comprehensive 50-year evolutionary simulation study, serving both as a rigorous validation of the new architecture and as an exploratory scenario analysis. The simulations are specifically designed to evaluate the long-term impact of critical mitigation and remediation strategies on spatial density and orbital capacity. Key focus areas include evaluating, e.g., variations in post-mission disposal (de-orbit) strategies, the long-term environmental footprint of large-scale constellation planning, the integration of Active Debris Removal (ADR) technologies, and the effectiveness of enhanced collision avoidance capabilities.
Furthermore, to quantitatively assess the environmental impact of these simulated scenarios, the study couples SDM 6.0 outputs with the Criticality of Spacecraft Index (CSI). By translating complex orbital population dynamics into standardized capacity metrics, we aim to provide a more intuitive evaluation of different space management strategies. Ultimately, this work seeks to offer actionable insights to support international dialogues on defining sustainable orbital thresholds and formulating long-term space environment management policies.
| Which section would you like to submit your abstract to? | Session 6: “How to measure the space capacity?” |
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