Speaker
Description
The rapid proliferation of satellites and the continuous accumulation of space debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of space activities, raising concerns about the potential onset of the Kessler syndrome. This work presents a comprehensive analysis of the future LEO environment through a modified and expanded version of the one-dimension particle-in-a-box model proposed by Lafleur (J.M. Lafleur, 2011). To accurately capture spatial dynamics, the LEO region is discretized into a selected number of orbital shells ranging from 200 km to 2000 km in altitude. The system's evolution is governed by a set of coupled ordinary differential equations tracking four distinct object populations: active satellites, inactive satellites, Starlink satellites (explicitly modeled as a standalone evolutionary class to enhance the model's predictive accuracy), and trackable debris larger than 10 cm.
Crucially, parameters used to model phenomena such as the solar cycle-dependent atmospheric drag, explosion rates, and collision probabilities, are consistently derived from scientific literature, ensuring a solid physical basis without relying on artificial curve fitting for validation. The methodology has been validated against historical SATCAT data spanning from 1960 to 2025, demonstrating strong agreement with observed population growth.
Building upon this validated baseline, the study projects the orbital environment up to the year 2125 under varying launch traffic models. The analysis systematically evaluates scenarios ranging from current launch rate extrapolations to significant increases in space traffic. Furthermore, a parametric sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the effectiveness of technological advancements and operational mitigation strategies. The impacts of improved collision avoidance capabilities, enhanced post-mission disposal compliance, and active debris removal implementations are evaluated. The findings provide a structured approach to assess divergence in long-term debris evolution, highlighting the critical thresholds of launch activities and the mandatory mitigation compliance levels required to stabilize the LEO environment and prevent a runaway collisional cascade.
This work is performed within the GREEN SPECIES project funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program (Grant agreement No - 101089265).
| Which section would you like to submit your abstract to? | Session 2: “Challenges of space debris modelling” |
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