A strategic workshop to help shape the future of Europe's Earth Observation system

Introduction

Earth Observation (EO) is entering a period of structural change. Climate pressure, geopolitical instability, rapid advances in AI and digital technologies, a growing commercial space domain, and evolving user expectations are challenging the EO ecosystem of today. Together, these drivers are transforming both the demand for information and the way that information must be generated, trusted, delivered and used.

Europe’s Earth Observation capability is world-class. However, the assumptions underpinning today’s EO architecture are already being stressed by:

• Increasing demand for timely, trusted, decision-ready information
• Growing dependence on AI-driven prediction, data assimilation and automated analysis
• Rising complexity across institutional, commercial, scientific, operational and security domains
• Greater exposure to systemic risks, dependencies and disruption
• Pressure on financial resources and shifting political and programme priorities

Incremental evolution is no longer sufficient. The challenge ahead is not only to add new missions, but to ensure that satellites, ground segment, data infrastructure, services, interfaces and governance evolve coherently as a system-of-systems architecture capable of meeting the challenges anticipated for 2040–2060.

A first workshop in 2025 considered the European Earth Observation Ecosystem as a system-of-systems. Its results helped shape the ESA Earth Observation Ecosystem Reference Architecture Blueprint 2025 Edition.

What will we do in this workshop?

The 2026 workshop will stress test and challenge the assumptions underpinning the Blueprint, and explore how the European EO ecosystem may need to evolve in the 2040–2060 timeframe.

Using structured scenario-framing narratives, participants will work through four steps:

Scan — What is changing?
Identify the major drivers shaping EO, including climate change, AI, geopolitics, markets, technology, security needs and evolving user expectations. Explore how these drivers affect what Europe needs to observe, and how observations may need to be made, processed and delivered.

Assess — What do those changes imply?
Explore how these drivers affect future information needs, observing-system requirements, data architectures, service models and institutional roles. Identify where today’s assumptions may no longer hold.

Stress test — What are the implications for the EO ecosystem?
Use contrasting future scenarios to expose gaps, vulnerabilities, trade-offs, dependencies and emerging opportunities in the current system. Test the resilience of today’s EO architecture against future conditions that may place very different demands on missions, constellations, data systems, services and governance.

Shape — What needs to be done, and why?
Identify priorities, architectural options and strategic actions for Europe. The results will help shape the 2026 edition of the ESA EO Reference Architecture Blueprint.

This process is intended to move the discussion from reactive evolution towards proactive system architecture design.

Scenarios are not predictions. They are tools to test robustness, reveal choices early, and explore options while they remain open.

Expected outcomes

The workshop will deliver:

• Four strategic scenarios for Earth Observation in 2040–2060
• A shared view of the key EO drivers of change, architectural challenges, risks and opportunities
• Identification of priorities and strategic options for Europe
  Insights into implications for missions, constellations, data systems, services, interfaces and governance
• A strengthened shared understanding across the European EO community of the architectural choices ahead
• Input to the next edition of the ESA EO Reference Architecture Blueprint

Who should attend?

The workshop is designed for a broad cross-section of the EO ecosystem, including:

• Space agencies, EU institutions and national programmes
• Mission planners and architecture teams
• Scientists and research organisations
• Industry and system integrators
• Commercial and New Space actors
• AI, data and downstream service providers
• Policy users, operational services and security communities

Your role

This is not a passive event. Participants are expected to contribute their expertise to challenge assumptions, test alternative futures, and identify what would need to change — and why.

The value of the workshop will come from combining institutional, scientific, technical, commercial and user perspectives into a common architectural view of Europe’s future EO capability.