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Description
HelMod is a Monte-Carlo model that reproduce solar modulation process during high and low solar activity periods, in the inner and outer heliosphere, at the Earth location and outside the ecliptic plane, making it suitable for both Earth orbit studies and deep space missions.
The main time dependent parameters are solar observables like the sunspot number, the tilt angle of neutral current sheet, the solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field measured at Earth. The model includes both description of inner and outer Heliosphere. Outer boundary is evaluated with a time dependent procedure that agrees with in situ Voyagers measurements. The modulated spectra obtained with HelMod have been compared to high precision proton and nucleus galactic cosmic ray spectra, such as those provided by AMS-02 experiment, as well other solar modulation codes. Using historical records of such parameters it is possible to estimate forecast of solar activity for solar cycle 25 and 26. Present work will show the forecast procedure up to 22 years and accuracy of such predictions. Moreover, the same solar modulation models have been used to calculate the single event effect rate on a specific device both during low and high solar activity and results have been compared.
