Speaker
Description
The European Union’s Horizon 2020 Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation (PAGER) project was successfully concluded in 2023. This project provides real-time space weather forecasts initiated from solar observations as well as predictions of radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions of particle radiation and cold plasma density allow for the evaluation of surface charging and deep dielectric charging. The project provides a 1-2-day probabilistic and data assimilative forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which allows satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we use the state-of-the-art codes that currently exist and adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantifications. Within PAGER, several innovative tools were obtained, including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L1, and data-driven forecasts of the geomagnetic Kp index and plasma density. In this presentation, we show the overview of the outcomes and the products obtained within the project. The developed codes may be used in the future for realistic modeling of extreme space weather events. Similar to the codes used in the PAGER project, we can use the VERB-3D code to evaluate the global precipitation of particles. Such precipitation outputs are now being used to evaluate the effects of the upper atmospheric chemistry and climate.
