Speaker
Description
Following the release of ESA’s Space Debris Mitigation requirements in 2023, ESA has been working towards future policy evolutions, with updated thresholds and requirements adapted to the dynamic orbital environment.
The ESA funded Zero Debris Threshold study performed by a consortium led by Thales Alenia Space France with the participation of Thales Alenia Space Italia and GMV, focused on the potential future thresholds evolution of the requirements related to Orbital Clearance and Vulnerability to Space Debris impacts, taking into account their technical and programmatic implementation on different type of missions.
Several study cases, among different satellite classes and orbital regions, were selected to analyze the impact at system level of the different thresholds evolution. Leveraging its expertise in hypervelocity impact testing and MicroMeteoroids and Orbital Debris (MMOD) shielding, Thales Alenia Space Italia has been responsible for the activities related to the vulnerability aspects. In particular, TASI was tasked to assess the risk of the S/C large fragmentation events induced by impacts with meteoroids and space debris, with the aim of assessing the potential relevant modification of the requirements dealing with the probability of S/C break-up in Earth orbit.
Several aspects and sources contributing to the MMOD induced on-orbit break-up risk were analyzed for each study case. To evaluate the MMOD related break-up risks, a simplified 3D ESABASE/Debris model has been developed for each study case. The obtained results were then combined with RAMs internal failure estimations to evaluate how close each case was to the threshold. Furthermore, design improvements were proposed for those cases that did not comply with the threshold. In the last phase of the study, a critical assessment of the tools and the methodology adopted was performed. This presentation will summarize the study’s key findings, discuss implications for vulnerability threshold evolution, and outline the next steps towards enhancing spacecraft robustness.