Speaker
Description
The expansion of interplanetary missions into cislunar, libration point, and deep-space environments introduces new challenges for debris mitigation compliance. In these regimes, chaotic dynamics and longer time scales increase trajectory uncertainty, creating the risk of Earth return at super-orbital velocities with potential impacts on satellites and ground populations. These risks are currently difficult to quantify due to the lack of dedicated standards and assessment tools.
This work presents a unified framework for debris mitigation compliance assessment of interplanetary return trajectories. A Monte Carlo-based approach is employed to model trajectory uncertainty and derive statistically robust risk metrics. The framework integrates trajectory propagation, collision risk estimation in protected regions, atmospheric re-entry and fragmentation modelling, and ground casualty risk assessment.
A simulated observation and orbit determination chain is included to evaluate cataloguing performance for objects beyond Earth orbit. The computational layer takes advantage of two ESA-developed astrodynamics libraries: CUDAjectory, for fast deep space propagation exploiting GPU parallelization, and GODOT, for near-Earth trajectory integration and measurement simulation. Collision risk is computed using a flux-based method adapted to hyperbolic trajectories, while re-entry and casualty risk are assessed using ESA’s DRAMA/SARA tool.
The methodology is demonstrated on three mission classes: heliocentric (JUICE upper stage), libration point (GAIA), and cislunar (Orion Gateway service module), highlighting its applicability across diverse operational scenarios.